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Monday, May 16, 2005

Nanotech, Water, and the Developing World

Thesis: Nanotechnology holds great promise for the global poor by reducing the cost and improving the quality of basic sources of well being such as water, food, and power.

A flurry of recent articles have discussed one of nanotech's most inspiring potential near-term contributions to the world--an abundant, clean water supply. Nanofiltration systems could render water sources as unclean as raw sewage into potable water, and desalinization could soon become economically feasible. This may not sound like big news to those of us with decent drinking water always on tap, but one of the biggest problems in the world is inadequate drinking water. With the world population and water consumption per capita rapidly increasing, the demand for fresh water is growing at an unsustainable pace. Furthermore, a large percentage of disease is a result of unclean drinking water, with over 2 million children dying from such illness every year. Nanotech has promise to solve this dilemma facing all man-kind.

More broadly, the nanotech revolution has the ability to help reduce the global disparity in living standards. Improvements such as the development of cost efficient photovoltaic cells and fuel cells will help lift up the developing world. As discussed in another [post], the nanotech revolution will be different from other revolutions, at least in the near-term, because it's all about building better products at lower costs. Unlike the transportation revolution with the automobile and the aircraft, or the information revolution with the computer and the internet, nanotech promises few pervasive, novel luxury goods (at least in the short-term). Rather, nanotechnology will have a major impact in the next one to two decades on the quality, cost, and accessibility of certain basic sources of well-being, such as water, power, medical diagnostics, medication, agricultural tools, and food transport and storage. Never before has science and technology held so much promise for all people of the world, and as globalization continues to transform the way we do business, travel and live, a more democratic era of wealth distribution may be at hand.

Top 10 Nanotech Improvements for the Developing World

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

First Impressions, Wisdom, and Intelligence

Thesis: Wisdom is a data driven process that relies on experiences to achieve pattern recognition, whereas intelligence is a logic driven process that relies on real-time analysis to obtain reasoned conclusions.

I recently finished reading the book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking by Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point. The book is a good refresher for those of you who took Psych 101 back in college, as it applies to the real world. The author discusses the human ability to make split-second decisions and assessments of situations. Actually, the book is a good read on romance if nothing else. The author introduces the book by discussing a multi-decade study performed on thousands of married couples that predicted, with remarkable accuracy, which couples would remain married. Only a brief conversation was observed for each couple, but with enough sample data and the help of a computer, the researchers were able to isolate the key behaviors that correlated with future relationship success or failure and predict with over 90% accuracy which couples would remain together. What does all this mean?--pattern recognition is king.

The Wisdom in First Impressions

Why is it that first impressions mean so much? How is it we can often size somebody up within the first five minutes of meeting them? Why do we, the amorphous all-knowing we, insist that "wisdom" is something that comes only with age and experience? What is this "wisdom" that is apparently distinct from raw intelligence? These are some pretty big questions, but I believe the answer to all of them is pattern recognition.

A lot more goes on in our mind than you would think. When you meet somebody, and size them up, you aren't explicitly analyzing their each and every mannerism and action to draw a grand and final conclusion; rather, something is happening on a subconscious level that enables you to instantly build an "impression," which is essentially a bank of information on this person (generated from past experiences with similar seeming people) that is entirely unconfirmed but much of which will later be proven true. While your conscious faculities are busy having a polite conversation, your subconscious is taking it all in--the person's gender, height, voice, posture, mannerisms, gait, clothes, style, the context of the situation, etc..--and accessing the massive database of people you've encountered in the past to construct a set of reasonable, data-driven assumptions about the person in question. Because this occurs through pattern recognition, we become more adept as we age and accumulate more data (more experiences).

This is wisdom unpacked--the reason the elder generation always seems a little more insightful and exhibits an ability to cut through the noise and get to what's important. Often times when the young buck from the Ivy League rolls into town ready to show up his colleagues, he discovers that he's got a long way to go. He can analyze all the data points all day and all night, applying his innate intelligence, but he ultimately lacks the seasoned intuition of those more senior to him, something that can only develop with time.

Pattern Recognition, The Process Underlying it All

Pattern recognition is essentially the essence of the human intellect. It's what allows you see "dog" in 300 different fonts or hear dog in 1,000 different voices and think, "dog!"; it's also what allows you to store and recognize faces. Similarly, it's what allows a manager who's been working the factory line for 20 years to quickly assess and resolve a situation similar to those he has seen in the past.

The reason are minds are built this way is for adaptability. Nature has discovered that the best design is one that can adapt to its environment. If nature were to hard wire you with 100,000 experiences but no ability to learn, you would be a mess. You wouldn't be able to learn the language or customs of your environment. Instead, we are born into the world as a blank slate and slowly accumulate information which we can use to operate compatibly with our environment. It's the autopilot effect of sitting down at a table with plates, silverware, and a napkin and knowing step one is to put the napkin in your lap. You've seen this situation a thousand times, and as a result, your subconscious is busy recognizing it and signaling to your body some basic decorum. Conversely, if you sit down at a table with 5 plates, 3 glasses, and a dozen pieces of silverware, and you're not a regular at State dinners, the task is likely elevated to your conscious faculties for assistance in executing the proper etiquette.

How Intelligence Differs from Wisdom

So how does intelligence differe from wisdom then? Why do certain people seem to excel more than other at a given age? The example of dinner etiquette gives us some hints by demonstrating when we accomplish a task through experience-based pattern recognition versus the use of conscious reasoning. Intelligence is our real-time ability to engage in reason, draw comparisons, and develop solutions, given the information we have available to us. Think about it... how is every IQ test out there structured? Intelligence tests attempt to eliminate the need for experience or special knowledge. The puzzles you're given involve decoding sequences of numbers, analyzing basic shapes, or rearranging letters. These are very complex problems that require only basic knowledge or understandings. Generally, none of the information a 50 year old has collected over that of a 15 year old will be helpful in solving these problems; it all comes down to the person's facility with this basic knowledge to recognize a pattern and develop a solution as quickly as possible.

So, the moral of the story is, don't be afraid to sometimes rely on your gut instinct. Wisdom and intelligence are very different things. You may not be able to readily provide the reasons for a gut-induced decision, but a lot went into it as your subconscious sorted through a deep well of personal experiences to serve up an "ah ha" that may well pack quite a punch.


Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Discovering Nanotechnology

Thesis: How I finally had the epiphany that drew me to nanotechnology.

A Vague Notion

If you're a friend and reading this, you're probably wondering, how the hell did Clayton become enamored with nanotechnology?--I thought he would make his mark driving some giant multi-national corporation into the ground, not betting on some seemingly crazy tech-pyramid-scheme.

For years my father had been whispering nanotech in my ear. His alma mater, Rice, was the first university in the world to build a center dedicated to the science of nanotechnology and the first institution to boast a Nobel Prize winning professor in nanotechnology (Richard Smalley). I had it in the back of my mind and had always taken an arm-chair interest in physics. At school, I studied the science of consciousness with an emphasis on computer science. I later joined the Lehman Brothers Technology group with the intention that I would one day go into venture capital. The question was, what kind of technology should I focus on?

What's Hot and What's Not?

My expertise was in computer science related fields, but early in my stint at Lehman Brothers a deal occurred that made waves in the tech community and caused me to rethink my plans. In the fall of 2004, IBM divested its entire PC business to China. Yes, IBM, the inventor of the PC and a 200 billion dollar company, does not sell PCs. It occurred to me that the information game may be yesterday's news. The industry was evidently poised for offshoring, consolidation and, as a result, rapidly maturing.

I began researching where early stage venture capital firms were putting their money and what nascent science the government was most dedicated to funding. I quickly learned that nanotech had developed more than a cult following during my four years in college.

Believe it or not, nanotech is red hot in the niche realm of technology growth funding. Scores of companies with "nano" in their title that have more than $20 million in funding from the most esteemed venture capital firms. Also, your senator is likely well aware of a nanotechnology public funding craze and probably has his staff working hard to secure a piece of the pie to open a nanotech research center in their district. Dozens of universities across the country, from MIT, to UT, to Stanford, have initiated well funded nanotechnology research programs. Even certain states, such as New York, have committed hundreds of millions of dollars to have a shot at putting the next Silicon Valley within their borders. What does this mean?--the human and financial capital necessary for a nanotech boom is quietly moving into place.

Since I discovered this small, but very active world, I have obsessively read investor newsletters, industry reports, and books on the topic, as well as monitored the daily news and the blogs of experts. In today's information-saturated age, anticipation is critical to success.