The Future I, a Discussion with Paul Saffo
Thesis: The need for understanding the future of technology is becoming increasingly important but the task of doing so is growing in difficulty. A talk with Paul Saffo provides some insight into what to expect in the next two decades.
This post marks the first in a series discussing the future. I know it's a fairly broad topic, "the future," but I think it deserves some consideration. The advent of nanotechnology is not the only aspect of change that will affect our lives in the coming decades, and a thoughtful assessment of all of the various factors, and how they might interact, may result in some worthy insight. In the past, some very perceptive thinkers competently predicted certain technological developments and their affect on society at large, while some technologies have remained elusive until only a short time prior to widespread adoption. I believe two competing forces are affecting our ability to forecast the future as time elapses—increasing awareness and accelerating returns.
On the side of clarity, we are better able to forecast the future because more people have acknowledged the paramount role of technological change in society. The realization that humanity is at an inflection point is generally accepted, and thinkers recognize the implications of rapid technological advancement. In other words, awareness is up, even if it’s just an average Joe watching The Matrix. There's more technology enthusiasts, Science Fiction authors, and general speculation than there was fifty years ago.
But, on the other hand--on the side of uncertainty--technological change isn’t just rapid, it’s accelerating. We can expect to see as much change in the next few decades as we did in the last century. That means that it’s as difficult for Michael Crichton to predict thirty years forward as it was for Jules Vearn to predict a century forward. Based on this principle, imagine the difficulty of predicting the future a hundred years from today; it would be like asking Leonardo Di Vinci to aptly predict the world as it exists in the present day, multiple centuries ahead of his time.
So what can we expect from the “future?”
Paul Saffo, the director of the Institute for the Future, spoke to the Stanford Business School. Here’s a brief bio:
Paul is Director of the Institute for the Future, Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation, as well as the boards of several public and pre-public companies located the United States and abroad. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum, which in the late 1990s named Paul one of its "100 Global Leaders For Tomorrow."
Paul really had a lot more to say than could be reasonably packed into an hour, but I think the theme of his talk was apparent: as internet and wireless technologies mature, they will bring about a revolution of ubiquitous personal media. Interaction with such media will occur with smart devices he describes as “sentient.” These devices will be seamlessly embedded in buildings, rooms, public spaces, vehicles, clothes etc… and will provide users with constant personalized interaction.
Blogs, podcasts, etc… have already created a personal media outlet, and online mega-corporations such as Amazon and Google use personal preferences to customize our online experience. Saffo stressed the importance of wireless in making computing ubiquitous, seamless and all present to bring this media experience to us at anytime. Already chips are in your microwave, refrigerator, computer, car, etc… Eventually computing will be extended to lesser devices as well as your clothing and furniture. Devices in clothing could monitor medical conditions, regulate temperature and provide visual effects. In general, computing will become increasingly aware and in control of our environment.
In terms of gaining access to the media, traditionally non-media products may become secondary and payment structures radically different. Imagine, for example, a world in which cars are sold to you at under-cost (like cell phones today), and profit is eventually achieved by charging for all of the various media services available to the vehicle, such as GPS, satellite radio, movies, on-star, internet connectivity, etc… We may well be “subscribing” to our vehicles in the future.
Saffo also spoke about biometrics and body enhancing surgeries. Just under 10% of pitchers in the MLB have had an elbow surgery that markedly improves their pitching speed, China recently hosted the first beauty competition in which only enhanced contestants could enter.
I will discuss more radical notions of the future in a later post.
,
This post marks the first in a series discussing the future. I know it's a fairly broad topic, "the future," but I think it deserves some consideration. The advent of nanotechnology is not the only aspect of change that will affect our lives in the coming decades, and a thoughtful assessment of all of the various factors, and how they might interact, may result in some worthy insight. In the past, some very perceptive thinkers competently predicted certain technological developments and their affect on society at large, while some technologies have remained elusive until only a short time prior to widespread adoption. I believe two competing forces are affecting our ability to forecast the future as time elapses—increasing awareness and accelerating returns.
On the side of clarity, we are better able to forecast the future because more people have acknowledged the paramount role of technological change in society. The realization that humanity is at an inflection point is generally accepted, and thinkers recognize the implications of rapid technological advancement. In other words, awareness is up, even if it’s just an average Joe watching The Matrix. There's more technology enthusiasts, Science Fiction authors, and general speculation than there was fifty years ago.
But, on the other hand--on the side of uncertainty--technological change isn’t just rapid, it’s accelerating. We can expect to see as much change in the next few decades as we did in the last century. That means that it’s as difficult for Michael Crichton to predict thirty years forward as it was for Jules Vearn to predict a century forward. Based on this principle, imagine the difficulty of predicting the future a hundred years from today; it would be like asking Leonardo Di Vinci to aptly predict the world as it exists in the present day, multiple centuries ahead of his time.
So what can we expect from the “future?”
Paul Saffo, the director of the Institute for the Future, spoke to the Stanford Business School. Here’s a brief bio:
Paul is Director of the Institute for the Future, Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation, as well as the boards of several public and pre-public companies located the United States and abroad. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum, which in the late 1990s named Paul one of its "100 Global Leaders For Tomorrow."
Paul really had a lot more to say than could be reasonably packed into an hour, but I think the theme of his talk was apparent: as internet and wireless technologies mature, they will bring about a revolution of ubiquitous personal media. Interaction with such media will occur with smart devices he describes as “sentient.” These devices will be seamlessly embedded in buildings, rooms, public spaces, vehicles, clothes etc… and will provide users with constant personalized interaction.
Blogs, podcasts, etc… have already created a personal media outlet, and online mega-corporations such as Amazon and Google use personal preferences to customize our online experience. Saffo stressed the importance of wireless in making computing ubiquitous, seamless and all present to bring this media experience to us at anytime. Already chips are in your microwave, refrigerator, computer, car, etc… Eventually computing will be extended to lesser devices as well as your clothing and furniture. Devices in clothing could monitor medical conditions, regulate temperature and provide visual effects. In general, computing will become increasingly aware and in control of our environment.
In terms of gaining access to the media, traditionally non-media products may become secondary and payment structures radically different. Imagine, for example, a world in which cars are sold to you at under-cost (like cell phones today), and profit is eventually achieved by charging for all of the various media services available to the vehicle, such as GPS, satellite radio, movies, on-star, internet connectivity, etc… We may well be “subscribing” to our vehicles in the future.
Saffo also spoke about biometrics and body enhancing surgeries. Just under 10% of pitchers in the MLB have had an elbow surgery that markedly improves their pitching speed, China recently hosted the first beauty competition in which only enhanced contestants could enter.
I will discuss more radical notions of the future in a later post.
,
posted by Clayton at 4:37 PM
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